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English Coronavirus 2020

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old Re: Coronavirus 2020

Hador
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That's pretty neat - how do you calculate the projections?
The settings say "current growth rate", but does that go any deeper than the current growth rate? Because especially in logistic curves, the second derivative plays an important role. Also, it seems to only look at the last measured growth, maybe a weighted inclusion of past growths might create more realistic results

Also, the projection for a year makes for some interesting results - Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are predicted to have more than a Googol of infections within a year

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

medeiros
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@user DC: wow, very nicely made! Really dig the simplistic and modern design. One thing though:
More >

The virus is called SARS-CoV-2, not "nCoV-19". The name 2019-nCoV was used temporarily (as a provisional name) until it was properly classified, but its been months since that term has been used.

Also there's no space between "corona" and "virus", the word is coronavirus.

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

DC
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@user medeiros: Thank you sir. Will update

@user Hador: The projection is extremely simple and probably needs some work. The used formulas should also be explained somewhere. Right now "current rate" is only based on the very last increase (between current and previous day).

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

Jawohl
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@user DC: thanks for including so much data, from australia no less, i appriciate that you added all the states even though you realistically didnt need to.

well done
you've clearly earned your web design wings well and truly.

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

ModJuicer
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Washington was the first place hit in the us. I live there and I am in quarantine. I am going stir-crazy. The only thing I currently am able to do is work on stranded II mods. Good for you guys but not so good for me. Does anyone have any ideas of how to have fun if you are in quarantine?

EDIT:cool website, user DC

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

DC
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@user Gaios: Totally agree. Removed it.
@user Pagyra: Yeah also observed things like that already. Probably values were inaccurate or only partially corrected, leading to weird results in calculations.

Edit:
I added live projection counters for the selected region and worldwide!
https://www.coronacurve.de/

they work this way:
1
total cases reported last day + new cases last day * factor
with factor ranging from 0 (00:00 h) to 1 (24:00 h) and also beyond 1 if the 24:00 elapsed without getting new data (there's a 2-3 hour delay with fetching latest data).

for the global counter it's the sum of all cases reported last day and the sum of all new cases reported last day.
edited 2×, last 10.04.20 08:49:39 pm

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

Devil-Thanh
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I'm from Viet Nam, this is the fifth continuous days that has no confirmed cases here, hopefully.

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

abc123
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considering how small my country is
the disease is pretty bloody infectious

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

DC
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@user Reaper: Sorry I don't have plans to put more time into this. Other pages have been improved a lot and I can't compete with that without putting more time into this little project than I want to.

The full source of the page (HTML + JavaScript) can be viewed though. It's not minified or anything. So people who know something about JS could easily make a version with different sorting.

old Statistics

Spark Fountain
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Fun Fact: If you visit https://coronacurve.de, scroll down to the global list and click twice on the heart filter icon, you'll find Spain at the top of the list. Funnily the number of new cases and new deaths have gone negative although this is a sum and dead people cannot be revived.

The reason for that odd behavior is that Spain corrected its death count, which makes the statistic believe the delta of new infections and deaths has gone negative. Thus, statistically Spain now has the best health rate on corona infections in the world.

Conclusion: Never trust statistics that you didn't manipulate yourself

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

The Dark Shadow
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That's going to be worse and worse, We couldn't control this virus, Now even a new virus appeared. I wonder what will be our "future".

old Re: Coronavirus 2020

Jawohl
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lol this was virus was so stupid and useless that they've already reopened the pubs and gyms in australia as if nothing happened (because nothing did.)
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